No Coal Burning by 2025
Mention the elimination of coal-fired electric generation within 15 years and you're sure to get noticed. And so it was when I saw that an environmental and energy group in North Carolina advocated exactly that to state utility regulators. In fact, it's a position that few in the renewable energy community publicly embrace.
So how did the group NC WARN reach that conclusion and in that timeframe?
I recently spoke to the group's expert witness, one John Blackburn, the emeritus Economics Department chairman and former chancellor of Duke University. He testified before the North Carolina Utilities Commission about the integrated resource plans (IRP) for the incumbent utilities, Duke Energy and Progress Energy.
It was, in fact, the IRPs that led NC WARN to do an analysis that led to its report that concludes a combination of energy efficiency, increased renewable energy and greater combined heat and power development could not only eliminate coal generation in the state but avoid the construction of new nuclear plants.
"We started out by increasing efficiency to a 1.5 percent per year," Blackburn said. "And then you bring renewables into it and if they are increased to 20 percent, you get to our conclusion. This is not something that comes out of the blue."
And the timetables for making that part of the proposal work, in 2025, or 15 years from now, is well within the scope or renewable energy mandates in most of the states that have one, Blackburn points out. And frankly, what he didn't say is that North Carolina's renewable energy mandate - 12.5 percent by 2021 -- is about the most modest one in the country.
There's also the global warning imperative, which initially brought NC WARN top the subject. It adheres to the statements of NASA climate expert James Hansen, who maintains global carbon emissions must start downward by 2015 and be eliminated by 2030.
And even without the carbon controversies, Blackburn said there are the "externalities" of coal generation of pollution and health concerns to eliminate it in 15 years.
And in North Carolina, surely that's one way to get noticed, to vault ahead of the rest of the country in such a short time.
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Comments
Well intentioned but misguided??
I used to think that the proponents of such proposals were well intentioned but misguided. Anymore, I'm not so sure.... at least about the well intentioned part. As one commenter noted, we really need to work on the problem in a balanced manner. In Colorado there is presently a bill in the legislature to force the repowering of coal plants to natural gas as a first step in reducing CO2 emissions. Even this will be expensive but rational, measured, incremental steps are more likely to solve the problem without commiting seppuku in the process.
Paying the Cost
One issue with NC Warn's position is cost. Who is going to pay the cost? This is especially pertinent when considering the shennanigans behind the manmade CO2 as a significant contributor to global warming theory. Based on that flawed data, NC WARN wants to throw away 200 years of energy reserves!
This would have been something to pursue when the US was the dominant manufacturing company in the world and we were not facing a heavy recession because government and business leaders decided the American economy should be serviced-based rather than manufacturing-based. Then we had the extra money to pursue such ideologies--even half baked ones. Now we don't.
I investigated purchasing PV solar systems for my home in the Houston area. After the available rebates here, it would cost me $13,000 to have a system professionally installed. That investment would save me about 4900KWh per year--$700 to $750.
Perhaps Dr. Blackburn (as assumed from his position in education) should apply his economic expertise to getting the costs of solar and wind power down before making statements about eliminating coal as a generating fuel.
No coal in NC by 2025
While we believe that renewable energy technologies will play an important role in the future, we are not so unrealistic to believe that coal or nuclear will be, or should be, eliminated from our energy mix. Certainly there are many special interest groups and companies that see profit and benefit to government mandates, taxes, and policies that eliminate coal and nuclear from our energy mix. For example, my company is in the renewable energy business and less coal and less nuclear means more money, a lot more money, in our "special interest" pockets. But as a 42-year energy professional I know that my special interest and my company's profit should not trump common sense and energy security. China, India, Indonesia, and other sleeping or growing giants will continue to build coal and fossil fueled power plants, and lets face facts, the USA will loose its position of world economic dominance. The question is how much damage do we want to do to our economy and our national well-being. Also, special interest groups see everything in Black & White. No shades of gray. There are new and truly "clean coal" projects under development, some of which I personally know more than fully mitigate carbon dioxide. Current coal technologies are far beyond the imagination and understanding of many environmental activist. I say Yes to Renewables, but I also say Yes to a Balanced Energy Policy which includes Coal and Nuclear.
Possible, perhaps. Plausible, hardly.
NC WARN is an anti-nuclear group, which is certainly related to both energy and environment. I guess they are now an anti-coal group as well. What the piece above does not say, though it certainly implies, is that they are now also an anti-gasoline, anti-diesel, anti-natural gas and anti-propane group as well.
While WARN and Hansen may well BELIEVE that "global carbon emissions must start downward by 2015 and be eliminated by 2030", they certainly do not believe that eliminating coal burning in NC by 2015 would accomplish that "wish". China and India, among other countries, control the possibility of halting the growth of global carbon emissions; and, they have absolutely no intention of exercising that control. China alone will add more coal-fired generation this year than NC has available to eliminate by 2025.
I also seriously doubt that the NCUC would choose to impose the cost of early closure of the two utilities' coal plants on NC consumers, plus the investments required to replace those coal plants with renewables, even with the efficiency offset WARN suggests is possible.
There is no state, national or regional "solution" to a global problem. Both Dr. Blackburn and Dr. Hansen KNOW that to be true.
Don't begin vast programs with half-vast ideas.