Environment First, or Economy First?
"To kill an error is as good a service as, and sometimes better than, the establishing of a new truth or fact" -- Charles Darwin.
Time to step back from the brink! Recent revelations of possible wrongdoing in Climate Research, now that the Climate Research Unit in the UK (CRU) data and correspondence has been at least partially, if unintentionally released, should raise many questions of scientific integrity. There needs to be a complete re-evaluation of the impact of environmentalist ambitions (in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - IPCC process) upon the world and its economy, as well as the possible corruption that government engenders in some scientists in their fight for government funding -- as Eisenhower warned.
So, should the environment, or should the economy come first in our thinking and efforts? Think about it carefully! We'd better get it right if we expect to survive as a species on this planet.
Not only are we, who think progress should logically prevail (for our sakes as well as that of the environment), losing this battle in government and schools, but so is the environment likely to lose big time if it goes to the top of our concerns, largely because of the misguided and ignorant actions of bureaucrats and environmental zealots, as well as over-funded scientists, who seem to forget -- regularly -- that actions which destroy our energy base and thus our wealth, have consequences; most often unintended consequences.
In N. Am and Europe; the formerly healthy economy -- the driver of all progress, as well as the real protector of the environment, through the wealth that our use of energy creates - is in a shambles. It is a struggle between the forces of a Free Market, and those of a stringently regulated (translation: government controlled and environmentalist-manipulated) 'socialist' one. As Margaret Thatcher pointed out - "The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money."
There is a price to pay for such blind regulatory folly. For example:
The land of total fruits and nuts; California, is bankrupt because of socialist agendas, environmental posturing, political correctness, and ignorance. Their solutions? A 10% surtax on earnings! As well as a further prohibition on energy developments off the coast! As well as closing down irrigation in one of the best agricultural areas in the world.
The wealthy are fleeing New York in droves in response to punitive taxes. Most politicians have not figured out that raising taxes beyond a certain point, results in loss of tax revenue. President Reagan knew something it seemed. Job creation is driven mostly by small businesses. Give them a hefty tax break, instead of loading them with needless environmental penalties for daring to operate, and watch the jobs come back, and tax revenues to increase.
Companies that are the lifeblood of the economy and wealth creation, are heading offshore and to China and the far east. Other companies, which do not deserve to be rewarded for their inability to compete, often due to their utter incompetence and wealth destruction, are saved from bankruptcy by government largesse -- OUR money, not theirs! Jobs are disappearing.
The US Cap and Tax bill, along with the renewable mandates which it spawns, is designed to put our energy base, and thus our wealth generation out of existence, but that gem, is never admitted. We are expected to install super-expensive (about 3 to 5 times more expensive than nuclear power for the same energy delivered -- Altamont pass!) and incapable, cuisinarts of the bird and bat world across the landscape, and cover our roofs with unaffordable solar panels -- unaffordable to all but the very wealthy - if we don't paint them and the roads white (Energy Secretary Chu!).
We can, of course be forced to meet any foolish target the government sets for us if we only will allow them to close down our economy and to push us all back to the dark ages, and life expectancy of maybe 40 years or less. After all, what does it matter if we kill off a few billion people to do it, as long as it's them and not us. Snag is; it's us, this time!
With U.S. unemployment realistically up to 17+% in what was the most prosperous country in the world -- now owned to a large part by China - can a revolution be far behind? WE already had food riots in parts of the world, when the price of grains rose dramatically because of the idiocy of government mandated and subsidized biofuels and ethanol, in response to another environmentalist stupidity.
What triggered this social insanity? What do we think are the significant environmental threats?
What is the greatest threat to the environment and the economy?
Ignorance! Ignorance! And more ignorance! And the tolerance of it!
So what should we do? Learn about unintended consequences, and how society really functions! Re-read Adam Smith and his Wealth of Nations. Put a healthy economy first. Get government out of our lives as much as possible. Limit its powers. Above all, make it (individuals) truly accountable. Get back to the constitution, instead of letting lawyers and the second most ignorant group on the planet after politicians -- environmentalists - punch holes in it and work around it and gut it.
We need to make those groups who try to de-rail our society, truly accountable in every way for their actions. Strip them of influence in government, a podium, and then their ill-gotten gains from their manipulative influences, and then ignore them as they deserve. Al Gore should be first in line for this opprobrium, but he's only one of many on my Gilbert and Sullivan little hit list.
Cap and Tax, and Renewable energy mandates. These are among the real killers of society, as they ensure that we will never have enough reliable or affordable energy to achieve a non-chaotic, energy sufficient society and industry.
Putting people to work in green jobs: This should NOT be a major goal of an economic plan. Rather, we should ensure that the jobs we create are those which contribute to wealth creation (jobs in fishing, farming, forestry, mining, oil and gas exploitation, and general resource development) rather than those which contribute to wealth destruction (bureaucrats, technocrats, government, and other service jobs which are not necessary). After all we could put everyone to work on treadmills if we chose, or recycling garbage -- mostly a stupidly expensive exercise - but all we would do is to kill society that much faster.
Exporting jobs: This seems to be the unintended (?) goal of the U.S. administration at this time. The intent seems to be to make the social environment punitive enough through taxes and unworkable environmental mandates ('renewable sources of (unreliable) energy, carbon dioxide as a pollutant -- when it is not), and now this recently exposed climate fraud, based upon climate change that happens all of the time anyway. If it gets publicized as it should, it might just save us from the CAP and TAX follies, that will destroy our economy. I hope we really do not have to sit back and watch as industry moves off to more friendly, less punitive, and cheaper jurisdictions, as it will if this stupidity gets enacted.
Controlling our energy use, is only one of the ambitious battles that has been playing out now for the last 30 years by environmentalists striving to control everything about our society, but is now building to the next step in Copenhagen (now called No-Hopenhagen by some) thanks to the ambitions of the UN to achieve world government and universal taxation at any cost. There is some hope that the UN, which is now feeling less and less optimistic about the likelihood of success this time around, will continue to fail. Hopefully, these revelations of possible climate fraud (climate-gate) will ensure that it happens.
This most recent 'climate change related' scandal which will take weeks to unfold fully, concerns the revelations of poor scientific behavior; (perhaps fraud, as well as scientific misconduct) in back and forth e-mails from the Climate Research Unit (CRU, and the Hadley Centre) and other co-conspirators across N. America, and Europe. Their unabashed and clear intent was to obscure and manipulate the truth about the climate. No wonder Phil Jones (major player at CRU) did not want to release his data. It would not, could not, and did not stand up to impartial scrutiny. With the integrity of his manipulated data in doubt, the entire basis of the IPCC existence collapses. Someone had better tell the politicians about it though!
As Nigel Lawson (former advisor to Margaret Thatcher) recently wrote on this at Timesonline, concerning many prominent and influential climatologists: 'Astonishingly, what appears, at least at first blush, to have emerged is that (a) the scientists have been manipulating the raw temperature figures to show a relentlessly rising global warming trend; (b) they have consistently refused outsiders access to the raw data; (c) the scientists have been trying to avoid freedom of information requests; and (d) they have been discussing ways to prevent papers by dissenting scientists being published in learned journals.'
In their numerous and revealing e-mails, they have also discussed 'losing' the data, and possibly did delete it; a criminal act. They have also co-erced better scientists to remain silent, or lose their jobs and sources of funding! Some, did lose their jobs.
We should have pulled the plug on the largely corrupt UN years ago, and its resident technocrats, tyrants and dictators, yet we won't, and they will do again what they have done many times before to wear us down, as long as the money keeps flowing into their hot and sticky little hands; agree not to agree until the next gabfest of social saboteurs, while they continue to massage the science to hide the truth, as they themselves now are shown to have done many times. The same is true of most environmental groups too.
How to change all of this with a stroke (or several) of the pen:
- Insist upon transparency and good supportable science, in all government decisions.






Comments
I'm not sure where to start.
How about China? Most of the reason jobs have moved to China is that it is so centrally controlled that its people are essentially slaves so their services can be secured at very low costs. No health care, no OSHA, and yes, no EPA. But I really don't think you can lay this one at the feet of the environmental movement.
Also, no comment about what to do about Peak Oil. Somehow I think just ignoring it is not the best course of action.
"Wealth creation" - for whom? If an activity makes money for someone, it must be good?? Such a view may serve the narrow interests of a very few, but not those of the people. It is not neoliberalism ; it is neofedualism.
An impartial appraisal of the electric industry grounded in an understanding of infrastructure economics and how other industries work, as well as an understanding of the particulars of the electric industry, cannot avoid the conclusion that our industry is extremely inefficient. It is inefficient to the detriment of both the environment and economics. So how to fix it?
It is not reasonable to think that further politicization and regulation will fix the problems. See for instance the California experience where a pile of new regulations were labeled deregulation. It was done badly enough to produce almost instant failure. If we attempt to succeed by subsidizing "solutions", then we are in great danger of failing more slowly. And failure by running out of other people's money is a clear danger.
It is unfortunate that the leaders of global climate studies have blatantly perverted the scientific debate by refusing to share their data. That does constitute an assault on science. And it leaves us with no credible basis for redirecting our economy based on their results. The real crime will be if their results are actually relevant, but their dishonesty forces us to spend the time go back and establish it on a reasonable basis. It is necessary to have a full airing before redirecting what will total at least hundreds of trillions of dollars world wide.
I have yet to see credible answers to the questions raised by climate skeptics, And having done complex modeling I know how easy it is to tweak them to get the answer one "knows" is correct. Why was it warmer 100,000 years ago than today? Why could people live off farming in Greenland hundreds of years ago, but not today, or at least not recently? Once the scientists can provide credible answers to these questions, and more like them, then they may establish public credibility. Telling us they have the answers and we need to take them on faith because we are too dumb to understand does not cut it, and never will. People who really know what they are talking about can explain things to amateurs. Perhaps most importantly, without credibility today's climate science will be ignored, right or wrong. The burden is on the climate scientists to make their case.
For those who think wealth is unimportant, have you ever been to Haiti? That is what no wealth looks like. You would not enjoy the lack of wealth in interior China either. But you would find the Chinese government has done a very credible job of increasing wealth on the coasts. Their jobs depend on it and they know it. Maybe they are more aware of the need to serve the people than many of the politicians in Washington.
In short, we need to pay attention to the concerns of people like Mr. Sutherland, even if they come in a rant and may be overstated. Our government is pursuing policies that have not been vetted in a reasonable way.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6bdneX1djD
http://www.kusi.com/weather/colemanscorner/81559212.html
"In N. Am and Europe; the formerly healthy economy -- the driver of all progress, as well as the real protector of the environment, through the wealth that our use of energy creates - is in a shambles. It is a struggle between the forces of a Free Market, and those of a stringently regulated (translation: government controlled and environmentalist-manipulated) 'socialist' one.".
Anyone who can't figure out the root causes of the present economic mess (lack of government regulation and oversight of a bunch of fraudulent banksters) doesn't deserve any further reading.
Johnathan said it, ignorance is the enemy and every time you close your eyes and stop reading something you feed the ignorance inside you. Now tell me oh sophomoric one, where were the CANADIAN regulators in all this? After all, your much vaunted socialist system with its government crown dominion banks couldn't POSSIBLY have been tainted by fraudulent banksters now could it?
Sarbanes Oxley was fully in force in the good old USofA , as a brand new and very toothy indeed form of NEW regulation, clearly it did NO GOOD AT ALL! What NEW regulation would you imagine would have solved this problem? The kind that was in place in Canada, in the UK, in China, France, Sweden? I could go on, but every one else is laughing already. You'll get the joke eventually, or not, probably not since your cognitive dissonance can't stand ideas that don't agree with your prejudicial notions.
How's that AGW working out for you? Your great scientists none the worse for the wear after:
As Nigel Lawson (former advisor to Margaret Thatcher) recently wrote on this at Timesonline, concerning many prominent and influential climatologists: 'Astonishingly, what appears, at least at first blush, to have emerged is that (a) the scientists have been manipulating the raw temperature figures to show a relentlessly rising global warming trend; (b) they have consistently refused outsiders access to the raw data; (c) the scientists have been trying to avoid freedom of information requests; and (d) they have been discussing ways to prevent papers by dissenting scientists being published in learned journals.'
It is no wonder you stopped reading, if you read with an open mind, your head would explode with all the misconceived notions you have inside falling out. Better to keep those eyes closed and the prejudices safely inside, where they belong. lol
One of the biggest benefits of this forum, is that the comments following any article are often the most informative parts of all.
It wasn't Sarbanes-Oxley. They probably shouldn't have repealed Glass-Steagall in 1999.
I can't help but feel that the inability to get more oil out of the ground (July, 2008) had some effect on things as well.
Skeptical Science
I find these explanations to be plausible. Meaning that I think any inquiry into this stuff (which I will welcome) will show not gross misconduct on the part of these scientists (though perhaps some poor judgment), but instead evidence that AGW skeptics have jumped to the wrong conclusions.
FWIW, I do believe the the CRU e-mail incident in the end will prove embarrassing. But to whom?
Also the preponderance of evidence says that the e-mails were not 'hacked' but were leaked by a frustrated insider.
Scientists with nothing to hide, do not hide their data, lose their data, resist FOI requests to show their data; nor do they adjust their data without showing both the unadjusted and adjusted data together, and explain clearly what they did. They also do not 'select' which data to use, or not use without explaining the process and reasoning clearly, so that others might agree with it all or not. Above all, they do not plot how to keep others from participating in the science, nor do they try to get them fired from their jobs or call for them to be tried as criminals and sent to jail.
Just some squirming on your part. Whether the e-mails were hacked or leaked is irrelevant.
Here's the personal statement and explanation from the guy that you lambasted in your own article. Did you even look at this first before passing on a quote you obviously snagged from the broad media? Most likely not.
Kevin Trenberth Statement
Trenberth was talking to his peers and he was bemoaning the fact that their models were so hopeless. Even his statement doesn't dispute this. And isn't the fact that the models are hopeless what the "skeptics" have been saying all along?
http://sppiblog.org/news/dr-chris-landsea-leaves-the-ipcc
...about his shenanigans concerning scientifically unwarranted statements (exaggerations) about hurricanes, and that were out of touch with reality. This caused Chris Landsea, the acknowledged world hurricane expert, invited to deal with Hurricanes for the IPCC under Trenberth, to back away with a full explanation of why he had no intention of having anything to do with this outrageous process, or this individual, after objecting to the inaccuracies of Trenberth, and being ignored by him.
You should be the one squirming Jim. Your gullibility is embarrassing.
What's relevant is that the top two e-mails trumpeted by the AGW skeptics as proof of some kind of conspiracy both have very reasonable explanations. This 1998 paper Briffa Paper describes the changing tree ring sensitivity as a "decline". (Page 5, first paragraph of part 5).
Trenberth was simply being forthright that the ground data couldn't explain warming that he knew was occurring (because of satellite observations) from 2004-2008. The ground data re-affirmed this in 2009. Trenberth indicates that the net influx of energy to the Earth is about 0.9 Watts/meter.
These two popularized e-mails are NOT smoking guns of any kind.
Groups that don't think the CRU e-mails undermine climate change science:
Nature
AMS (American Meteorological Society)
UCS (Union of Concerned Scientists)
NASA
(Oh, I forget. These are all part of the global climate change conspiracy....)
I am an avowed free-marketeer, as I suspect are the vast majority of contributors to this forum. However, in my opinion phrases such as
“It is a struggle between the forces of a Free Market, and those of a stringently regulated (translation: government controlled and environmentalist-manipulated) 'socialist' one”
and similar in your piece add nothing to the pro/anti AGW debate. The case for stringently enforced, effective regulation in a free society and a free-market economy is undeniable. By all means argue that regulation is not effective, or that it is not properly enforced (as I have done here in the past regarding emissions trading), but please don’t present anything you disagree with as simply a pinko-green conspiracy.
When reading your article, rather than the “Wealth of Nations”, I was put in mind of two other publications that are both over 50 years old.
The first relates to the benefits of regulation and is “the Theory and Practice of Communism” by RN Carew Hunt. His work is now largely ignored, save for a few historians and economists who note that 25% of the world’s population continues to live under the rule of Communist parties. Karl Marx’s central idea was that under capitalism, wealth and the power would be become more and more concentrated in ever fewer hands until the bulk of the population were so disenfranchised and exploited by the rich that they would revolt, overthrow them and replace them with a collectivist regime. On the basis that the Anglophone countries were the most capitalist countries in the world, Marx postulated that they would be the first see communist revolutions, starting with Gt. Britain where there was the greatest disparity between rich and poor and a rigid class structure.
Carew Hunt pointed out that in the Anglophone world, capitalists were prevented from reaching the zenith of their power by government intervention, which stopped them from unrestrained exploitation of the workforce and natural resources and enabled social mobility. This initially took the form of legislation regarding working hours, working conditions, the right of labor to organize and public education, but continued through laws such as the Sherman Anti-trust Act of 1890 and onto the whole gamut of modern legislation including environmental laws. Consequently, Marx’s revolution didn’t happen anywhere except in Russia and Cuba (elsewhere communism was imposed as a consequence of World War 2 and Vietnam) and ironically Communist Russia under Stalin came closer to Marx’s vision of pre-revolutionary dystopia than any capitalist country has ever done.
As I am sure you are already aware, Hardin’s article is a polemical argument against over-population which explores what happens when mankind is totally free to exploit the commons, be it natural resources or pollution. In my opinion, one only needs to look at the collapse of the Newfoundland fisheries or the contamination of the Great Lakes by industrial pollution to see merit in his argument. However it is so frequently misinterpreted that Hardin himself later said he should have called it “the Tragedy of the Unregulated Commons” One of his key conclusions was that
“Every new enclosure of the commons involves the infringement of somebody’s personal liberty. Infringements made in the distant past are accepted because no contemporary complains of a loss. It is the newly proposed infringements that we vigorously oppose; cries of “rights” and “freedom” fill the air. But what does “freedom” mean? When men mutually agreed to pass laws against robbing, mankind became more free, not less so. Individuals locked into the logic of the commons are free only to bring on universal ruin; once they see the necessity of mutual coercion, they become free to pursue other goals.”
The way I see it, we (well most of us) don’t rail against labor laws or anti-trust laws because we grew up with them and we recognize the benefits these bring to us both as individuals and as societies. Contrast that with President Obama’s health plan which is being vigorously opposed by US citizens but where Canadian and European commentators (who already have state-run health care) can’t understand what all the fuss is about.
When it comes to AGW, those people who believe in AGW see freedom of the carbon commons as bringing “universal ruin” and are therefore working to achieve “mutual coercion” on a global scale. This has nothing to do with socialism and has everything to do with
a) the scientific arguments and counter-arguments surrounding AGW and
b) the form that effective and stringently enforced global regulation should take.
To prevent the latter, you have to win the former, which can only be done by scientific argument. My perception is that regardless of the CRU hacked e-mails, the pro AGW camp is winning because their arguments, despite their failings, are more cogent than the majority of stuff coming from the anti-AGW camp. That is why I when I do comment, it tends to be on the proposed legislation and regulations that I think are now unstoppable regardless of whether AGW is actually happening or not. If we are not careful, we will be too busy heaping derision on each other and fighting skirmishes after the battle to have any chance of influencing laws that are going to have a profound influence on all of us.
What can reasonably be done about global warming is to phase out coal-fired plants in favor of nuclear power. Also, phase in plug-in hybrid vehicles. The worst case of this effort would be that we can forestall and even avoid the consequences of peak oil.
The scenario you describe in your last comment is precisely what the Ontario government is pursuing using a variety of methods. The only part that is stalled for now is the adoption of more nuclear beyond refurbishments to existing nuclear plants, because they cannot tolerate the huge up-front construction costs of large new nuclear plants. Hence they are promoting renewable source generation in a very big way with themost lucrative grid feed-in tariffs, with lots of R&D funding directed at the technology advancement supporting them.
If the up-front construction costs were to come down substantially, or if the nuclear industry were to promote smaller sized cheaper plants much more, then Ontario would probably vigorously pursue new nuclear again. After all we have depended on nuclear plants in Ontario from the beginnings of the industry when the Pickering station was built.
the problem with nuclear is that the cost which has gone up a lot in the last two years and there is a shortage of manufacturing capacity world-wide (I suspect that this has had an influence on the price tag). IMO carbon trading revenues won't even begin to cover the additional costs. I therefore see nuclear only surplanting new coal rather than replacing existing coal for the foreseeable future - despite the recent capital cost shocks, nuclear still seems to be cheaper than coal with carbon capture and storage.
I also see a problem with future uranium supplies - despite the cost rises, plant are being built and demand is growing faster than the mining industry's ability to bring new production on line. There are also problems with some existing suppliers in South Africa (where uranium is a byproduct of gold mining) because they don't have enough electricity generation capacity to meet demand and as a result they are losing production. Still it is an ill wind - I reckon that there is some profit to be made from uranium mining stock in the next few years, the new Rossing South mine in Namibia looks particularly interesting.
I would be interested to hear from some of the nuclear experts in this forum their views about reporcessing and using MOX as a fuel in large quantities. Also, some months ago someone posted a contribution here about the use of thorium - how likely is that to ever get off the ground?
I and others have already told you about the lack of weather station data, it is even worse than I thought given the most recent revelations. But if you believe that 1000 weather stations worldwide give an accurate indication of world temperatures (and if you read ANYTHING by Singer you'll know that he and Christie know the satellite data better than anyone) you'll find the REAL reason why the satellite data doesn't match up with the surface records, the coolest data is simply discarded!
For those who wish direction to my other papers on a related site, go here:
http://www.energycentral.com/functional/reference/whitepapers.cfm
and select the publisher filter - edutech enterprises - ie ME. There are 8 more papers there I believe.
thanks for the link, I have downloaded your papers and am reading them.
In one of them in 2004 you stated that MOX reprocessing was not yet economically viable. In your opinion, what proce does uranium have to reach for MOX processing to become viable?
I think the Indians are working with Thorium because they have a lot of it, as does the U.S. and many other countries. It doesn't seem to be technically problematic, more an issue of setting up the fuel markets, etc. Integral Fast Reactors (IFRs) also have the potential of using nuclear fuel much more efficiently and also (for the same reason) producing much less waste.
But you are right all of this hinges on cost, to some extent. I think if more were built, costs would come down. I think some Canadian plants were built in China at a very reasonable cost.
Jeff,
Blah, blah, blah. The AGW skeptics had their chance with the CRU e-mails and they are BLOWING IT. By misinterpreting messages and creating a stink where there really isn't one. It's always the same thing with this sort of "evidence" raised by the skeptics. You poke at it a bit and it falls apart.
I don't know how many posts I've seen with the phrases "hide the decline" and Trenberth's "travesty" comment. The AGW skeptics gleefully re-posted again and again without looking to see what it was all about. The sad thing is that it's possible there might be something important in the CRU e-mails. But by posting the WRONG ONES, the AGW skeptic community once again shoots themselves in the foot (at least for those willing to keep an open mind).
Now you are back to weather stations. I guess the CRU e-mails have lost their traction. That took about what, 3 months?
John,
You really oughta learn to add links. If Jeff could teach me, he should at least teach you:
http://www.energycentral.com/functional/reference/whitepapers.cfm
If John Coleman and his aides have such a wonderful case, then why don't they take it to a District Attorney's Office? I remember Congress getting all over some scientist found guilty of fraudulent findings. Seems like a slam dunk for people that have been caught "red-handed". Unless, of course, Coleman is a nut and his claims have no merit.
It will take a LOT more Massachusetts elections for THIS administration to investigate ANYTHING.
You send me a link about Coleman which proudly allies itself with The DAILY SHOW!?!!! and the Colbert Report?!!??!! and you expect me to take you seriously??? You'll have to do a LOT better than that my friend, a LOT better. Now if your intent was to make me laugh, well you did succeed there. :0)
CRU debunking video
I did check out the searchable link.
There are thousands of e-mails. No, I did not read them all. Perhaps you could suggest one that deserves my attention? I even listened to the Coleman link, which was an enormous waste of time. Mostly just states there is a fraud/conspiracy, with no proof. Again, if what they have is so damning, they can take it to a Federal attorney. We'll see what happens with all of that.
Also, I think my Briffa link got fouled up.
I did locate this CRU e-mail. Pretty horrific how these scientists think, eh?
Answer me this: How is it BETTER for science to discard source data? What possible reason would one discard thousands of data points EXCEPT to obfuscate the results?
Perhaps you feel the next national election should only accept votes from 100 "randomly chosen" individuals? You actually BELIEVE the result will be accurate? Would making it 1000 individuals make you feel better? Would you feel more comfortable if those votes were "smoothed" and "interpolated" to adjust for geographical tendencies? Would THAT make you feel more comfortable about the outcome?? Because the emails CLEARLY state this is what is going on at CRU and elsewhere. Why not count ALL the votes so there is minimal CHANCE of rigging the outcome?
I can point you to multiple peer reviewed papers that discuss this, but you won't read them, so what is the point? You want proof, but like Len you refuse to look at it? Here's another one you won't read, but others here will. In a scientific manner it identifies the data source biases used by the alarmists, and shows how that has falsified the results. The article has been peer reviewed, and I'm sure the whole business in the emails about attempting to control the peer review process (and partially succeeding) likewise went right by you. I honestly thought you were more intelligent than this, I am disappointed.
Jeff, You beat me to it with your first paragraph.
Anything else I can teach you?
So I guess it's mostly name calling at this point. I thought the video was interesting because first, it should how those two quotes were hounded upon so much by Limbaugh, Beck, and others (including John) and then showed how the quotes were really pretty innocuous.
Since you can't really debate that, you both start ranting about not much of anything.
In retrospect, it was a pretty poor idea to try to make quick hay out of some e-mail comments. The precise context would be very hard to establish unless you were an expert (and even then difficult). But at the same time, very easy to explain by those same experts, especially those familiar with those same conversations. It only made sense as a tactic if the critics were certain that the scientists were up to no good. (Admittedly, 'hide the decline' sounds suspicious to a layman.) But the critics were wrong; those e-mails (those 2 e-mails at least) were completely benign.
Briffa only released data when he authored a peer reviewed article in a publication that DEMANDED data, that's when everything fell apart for him. From your supposedly innocuous CRU emails: David Schnare wrote:
Tom:
Briffa has already made a preliminary response and he failed to explain his selection
procedure. Further, he refused to give up the data for several years, and was forced to
do so only when he submitted to a journal that demanded data archiving and actually
enforced the practice.
More significantly, Briffa's analysis is irrelevant. Dendrochonology is a bankrupt
approach. They admit that they cannot distiguish causal elements contributing to tree
ring size. Further, they rely on recent temperature data by which to select recent tree
data (excluding other data) and then turn around and claim that the tree ring data
explains the recent temperature data. If you can give a principled and reasoned defense
of Briffa (see the discussion on Watt's website) then go for it. I'd be fascinated, as
would a rather large number of others.
Here's the link, note the dates too, unlike when Gore claims these emails are 10 yrs old, they were literally weeks away from the "leak".
You also have neatly avoided the argument about how a small 'n' in a population is statistically superior to a large 'n'. I'd like to see your proof on that, it would stand against 300 years of statistical knowledge.
The Independent Review by the UK parliament will:
'1. Examine the hacked e-mail exchanges, other relevant e-mail exchanges and any other information held at CRU to determine whether there is any evidence of the manipulation or suppression of data which is at odds with acceptable scientific practice and may therefore call into question any of the research outcomes.
2. Review CRU’s policies and practices for acquiring, assembling, subjecting to peer review and disseminating data and research findings, and their compliance or otherwise with best scientific practice.
3. Review CRU’s compliance or otherwise with the University’s policies and practices regarding requests under the Freedom of Information Act (‘the FOIA’) and the Environmental Information Regulations (‘the EIR’) for the release of data.
4. Review and make recommendations as to the appropriate management, governance and security structures for CRU and the security, integrity and release of the data it holds.'
Yeah! I guess there's noyhing to see folks. Move along! Move along! Spin it however you like Jim, but your empty obfuscations and spinning, will not make it go away any time soon. It stinks!
And Penn St. is going to investigate Michael Mann due in part to his involvement with the CRU e-mails. This is all a very GOOD thing. Further transparency is needed in this area. The data and the algorithms they used need to be publicized and further understood.
If after all this digging, the authorities find a conspiracy, good for them! We'll see what happens.
Len, didn't forget you. Just because the CURRENT government in Canada is marginally right leaning doesn't mean there haven't been LEFT leaning governments there going back to Trudeau at least. I live further north than you do, but still in the US (that's a geography lesson for you) and know hundreds of Canadians. Many of them come here for health care because they don't feel like waiting years to see an oncologist or cardiologist. Since you have socialized medicine, I'm pretty clear on the definition, but as we argued before, you're a little sketchy on definitions. You denied that the Nazi's were a socialist party but there it is, right there in their name. I don't care that years later someone else calls them fascist, they were the National Socialist Party, just like Canada has the NDP. Whether or not they eventually go berserk is irrelevant to the point, they are socialist right there in their name. Multiple sources list Canada as socialist, not in the Marxist Lenin mode of communism (incorrectly called socialism), but the lighter version that Sweden and others have.
I think I could educate you on American politics too. Just because a party holds executive office by no means indicates they are running the country. Many times in America we've had one party hold the executive office while the other holds the congressional branch and vice versa. Furthermore, you don't even need the majority to have your agenda followed, sometimes it is more valuable to be the swing votes.
Canadian bank that are tier one asset based may be twice American INVESTMENT banks, but not commercial banks as far as regulations go. In point of fact BOTH countries follow the BIS (Bank for International Settlements) definition of asset ratios. Furthermore as you can see from the link, the US actually is MORE stringent than the BIS that Canada follows. As usual, you missed my point entirely, which is that the US banks, while culpable is not by any means the only guilty party in this. There is plenty of blame to go around, and some unfortunate mark to market accounting that the US banks ran into, a direct consequence of Sarbanes Oxley. Once the Market for those derivatives disappeared, so did the asset values on the books. Therefore by definition (but not reality) the banks were bankrupt. Glass Steagel was repealed here because OTHER countries did not have the same laws, so banks here were at a disadvantage.
The law of unintended consequences. rears its ugly head again.
I see it's no point trying to speak rationally to you on this topic either. BTW, my daughter was just last summer treated (VERY well and promptly) for breast cancer here in Canada. We investigated statistics very thoroughly, and fouind that only one cancer clinic, in Boston, has a better record for patient outcomes than the local facility (in Canada) . BTW, medical care in Caanda is NOT provided by the government, but by private medical practioners and clinics of same. It's the medical INSURANCE system which is run by the government, as it should be.
"I don't care that years later someone else calls them fascist," -- Ummmm, they were being called facists correctly while they were providing military support to Franco's facists during the Spanish civil war in the mid-thirties. Not to mention the links with Musolinii's facists. You apear to be an easy mark for the likes of Goebels and that minor bush's campaign manager. "The truth is what we tell you, not what you learn for yourself."
BTW it was Canadians who told me their country was socialist, not something I made up. Glad to hear your medical care is so good over there on the east coast, on the west coast things are a lot rougher, known as supply and demand. While Alberta funds your profligate ways over there, the west side suffers.
As for Bush, get over it. Good grief, and it's not even your country. How wacko can you get. I don't go frothing at the mouth like you do over Canadian (or French, or British etc.) politicians. Did Bush really make your life so miserable up there? lol
When we sleep next to an elephant, when it rolls over we get squashed.
But I don't blame you for wanting to talk politics because things aren't looking so good for you on the AGW front. :)
So there you have it, George Bush saved the planet! You're just too easy Len. ;)
It's always convenient to explain the lack of progress of AGW skeptics as conspiracy, conspiracy, conspiracy. So East Anglia and Penn. State are both heeling to some higher authority to make sure every CRU detail is whitewashed? (That's what you said.) How precisely would this be orchestrated? Should I wear aluminum foil on my head so these authorities can't read my thoughts? (I mean, a second layer, cuz I already got one to keep Big Oil from stealing my energy ideas....)
I remember this joke about Canada, which was formed with the notion of British culture, American government, and French cuisine. Unfortunately, they ended up with French government, American culture, and British cuisine. (Apologies to Canadian readers, esp. Len and Bob!!)
But yeah Jeff, Bush and Co. (the neocons) basically decided personally to invade Iraq. I dunno about the economy; something tells me it was heading for a world of hurt regardless. Bush (and Greenspan) certainly didn't help however. (Never, ever, EVER, trust a Randian.) Maybe in 2020, a bunch of Americans will fly a plane into the Burj Dubai. And Saudi Arabia will respond by invading Canada!
Jeff, the worst thing Bush did w.r.t the Iraq war is not waiting for the 4th Mechanized Infantry Division to find another way in besides Turkey. They instead rushed because they wanted to be in and done fighting before Summer. Criminally stupid and naive.
As to "investigations". Clearly you don't understand the game. Will Penn State seriously damage one of their rainmakers who has brought so many millions into the university? Will pigs fly? From Investor's Business Daily:
A U.S. ClimateGate?
Investor’s Business Daily Editorial
Hoaxes: Climate researchers and the Weather Channel’s founder accuse NOAA and NASA of the same data manipulation as Britain’s Climate Research Unit. Were weather stations cherry-picked to hide the temperature drop?
We recently commented on how our space agency for two years refused Freedom of Information requests on why it has had to repeatedly correct its climate figures.
hmm, federally funded agencies refusing to release data under freedom of information acts in two different countries. Guess I'd better look into that tin foil after all eh?
"That was why it was the height of irony that the CRU emails were originally LEAKED on the Realclimate.org website, which is heavily moderated (read censored), meaning someone at Realclimate was either stupid or complicit."
Or maybe they were just interested in getting information out for people to access. Oops! I keep forgetting about the massive international AGW conspiracy.
Jim: Obviously no point in discussion with these sceptic types, their minds are made up regardless of the facts.
Len, America is in our name as in "United States of AMERICA". Now if you were Canda of America you might have a claim but otherwise your argument sounds exactly like what it is, childish. As to minds being made up regardless of facts, that statement describes you to a "T".
To both of you. If the taxpayer funded climate scientists were so interested in getting the "information out", why is it that they ALL are evading freedom of information requests to get at the source data? Why is it when they DO release the source data, they are forced to recant previous statements? If they were right, and were confident in their hypothesis, they would have no trouble whatsoever releasing all the data, all the code, everything. Obviously that is not the case and they are losing the battle, with new revelations literally every day, like this one. So in previous discussions, you two refused to accept any information that wasn't peer reviewed. Too bad the IPCC doesn't follow that same formula.
In other words not science at all, merely schlock from advocacy groups like the World Wildlife Fund. Minds made up regardless of the "facts" indeed.
All good points Jeff, and logic that just bounces off these gentlemen.
I may be a Canadian, but as my economy is so closely tied to that of the US, my politics are way south of my border.
However, try to remember the following. (1) Sweden constructed 12 nuclear reactors in 13-14 years that eventually provided more than 50% of our electricity, and it was relatively cheap energy. From time to time, cost wise, it was the cheapest in the world. It couldn't be done now of course because morons and fools have told the voters and their elected representatives that it is impossible, and it is fashionable to believe M&F.
And (2), as for the gentleman who was talking about anarchy in Russia, Putin and Medvedev are the best thing that has happened to that country since Peter the Great, and they are also the best thing for countries who need their natural resources, etc.
John, you wouldn't be talking about President O., would you. The US economy is in the shape that it is thanks to George W. and Bill Clinton. The prez has the right economics team - Mr Ben and Mr Larry - but sadly he has got at least a few things wrong. Of course, I wouldn't vote for Sarah or anyone like her,
The content of my comments following are in part paraphrased from the brilliant The Toronto Star newspaper energy columnist Tyler Hamilton.
Ontario as you know has the most lucrative grid feed-in tariffs in the world now for solar and wind generators. Over the past few days they signed a 7 billion dollar deal with the giant corporation Samsung that commits them to building 2.5 Gigawatts new capacity of wind and solar generation in Ontario. More importantly it commits them to also build new manufacturing plants in Ontario that will create 16000 new jobs for Ontarians in the coming years as a precondition.
To qualify for the lucrative grid feed-in tarrifs, according to Ontario’s Green Energy Act, any new renewable source generators must have a minimum percentage of domestic hardware content made in Ontario (if I recall correctly the minimum starts at 40 percent and rises to 50 over time). To make it a sweeter deal to attract Samsung, the Ontario government gave Samsung a big prize of an EXTRA 4 percent per kilowatt-hour over and above the lucrative feed-in tariffs, amounting to something like an estimated 437 million dollars net-present value over 25 years. If Samsung doesn’t deliver on the new jobs, they forfeit this extra prize.
Some local politicians are calling this “economic adder” prize a stinky backroom deal cut with a foreign company. Ontario’s local power producers, including wind and solar developers, also argue they’re being treated unfairly because of special treatment given to Samsung.
But in reality this deal is not much different than past state governments offering huge tax breaks for large corporations to locate new factories in their backyards to create jobs. This deal is about Ontario desperately competing for jobs in tough economic times. It is actually a very sneaky deal politically since it doesn’t impact Ontario’s taxes or budget revenues, it merely passes on the extra cost to all electricity rate payers over time.
So, is it the environment first or the economy first? In Ontario it’s BOTH gentlemen.
That's the second time you mentioned 'rubes'. So apparently, there is some kind of arrogance issue with you? I mostly detest academics. They are basically 100% arrogance. Often using it to hide their own inadequacies. ("The rest is left as an exercise to the reader.")
But in any case, that doesn't mean I will sit back and accept the notions of Ashworth, Beck, and Carruba, the 'ABCs' of AGW skepticism. Or faulty quotes (whether they are or are not travesties).
You disagree about the notion of global warming and provide information to back it up. We hold you to task on it and you come back and call us arrogant! Well, I don't know if that's arrogance on your part, but it sure is Chutzpah!
I could be convinced otherwise about AGW. But truthfully, much of the so-called 'evidence' that skeptics provide cause me to believe in it more, because it is so bad. As I've said before, if you want to convince people (or at least me) that AGW is a hoax, then STOP WITH THE CRAPPY CLAIMS.
I think it's great the the CRU e-mails will lead to more openness with the researchers' work. We'll see what comes of it.
The AGW debate is almost moot if Ontario is an example of what state or provincial governments are thinking, or starting to think. Even if AGW is a hoax as some persistent authors here are suggesting, it won't matter to the economic and political agenda of some governments if AGW can be used as an excuse to foster economic growth. That includes the Obama administration.
Now I know what some here are going to say to this - why not rig the rules to give massive economic stimulus to the nuclear industry instead. In my view most of the consuming public and the greens especially will swallow AGW as a very good reason to accept renewable source generation much more easily, and will even be willing to pay the higher costs of renewable sources to some extent. Many politicians know this, and are therefore not so stupid after all, since they also know that if AGW turns out not to be a hoax, then they will have gone down the right path anyways.
I appreciate your sentiment, but to many AGW critics, these ends do not justify the means. I agree with you in that any changes in behavior due to AGW should also include dealing with peak oil.
I don't know why they didn't have a peak oil conference in Copenhagen instead of one about AGW.
In my humble opinion, the peak oil looming crisis is not raising the public's alarm bells as much as climate changes are, and hence our political leaders don't believe a conference is necessary, yet. Further, the AGW debate can impact all fossil fuel uses and some chemical industries, whereas oil tends to impact transportation much more than others.
So, I believe we would see a peak oil conference if we were to enter into an oil price escalation emergency like we did in the summer of 2008 that persisted, since it would threaten the economic survival of whole other industries due to the skyrocketing costs of transport fuels. (Remember the failing business models of airlines at $200/bbl, and the end of cheap imports on Walmart's shelves.)
I think we’ll get oil price escalations down the road but not so dramatic and fast as in 2008, because among other things the auto industry is now being nurtured to get electric vehicles on the market in mass numbers, and soon. And as I have said in past here, just watch how fast consumers will switch their buying habits of cars if gasoline prices double or triple, or if electric vehicle prices come down closer to regular vehicle prices.
Jim, your illogic persists. You continue to demand a counter-theory to AGW when none is needed. You furthermore demand the proof of a negative, likewise illogical. Finally you don't understand just how damning the facts that are FINALLY seeing the light of day are. Even if you got an F in statistics, you should understand that cherry picking source data and limiting sample size are no-no's.
Len, you apparently think the Wildlife Fund qualifies as peer reviewed science. At least Bob has a degree in science. His arguments concerning the falsity of the global warming "science" were correct regardless of his feelings about things beyond his purview. The mistake of course is Bob was already locked into the logical quandary that Jim would have us all in, that a counter-theory must be proposed to disprove AGW. That is of course nonsense. Jim didn't understand how the Martian Venusian metaphor applied to his approach. As John here says, continuing the discussion with such dim bulbs is apparently a complete waste of time.
I've been arguing against AGW consistently here for 3 years straight. Those who argue in favor of it have diminished to you two. Oh sure, there are pseudonyms who parachute in with snarky comments never to be heard from again and if I were of a more forensic bent I might be able to determine which luminary here is pretending to be someone else, but no matter. You two are welcome to be as stubborn as you like, until perhaps you are the last two on the planet so inclined as the glaciers grow and we enter the next ice age, or that big yellow thing in the sky goes nova and you continue to blame the CO2. If you're not intellectually honest enough to recognize the falsity present with the evidence piling up then the problem clearly lies elsewhere. I for one am done with it. Time to move on
You're correct, Europe's gasoline prices have been double or triple our prices over here for a long time already. Europeans may not be scooping up hybrids or PHEVs by the boatload yet, but notice most have been driving much smaller cars with much higher fuel economy for decades than the SUVs and trucks we see on every other driveway over here.
Hybrids and PHEVs are still too expensive in Europe and over here to justify boatloads of sales, but things are changing gradually. Vehicle selection has been pitiful until very recently, and it is about to go up big-time as virtually every automaker is introducing new electric models. The expectation is that the increased competition and ramping sales volumes will help to drive prices lower over time.
It's like any other consumer product. Just watch how fast electric vehicle sales will skyrocket once their mystery fades with the average buyer out there, and especially once they become "fashionable" with consumers. All it takes on your street is for one or two neighbors to buy one, and before long after a few beers over a BBQ with all the neighbors, others will start to follow suit.
It's the end of January. Let's see what things are in 6 months, when all these revelations from CRU, NASA, and Penn State are revealed. If you are correct, then people will be abandoning the AGW theory in droves. And you would be right all along.
I say things will be about the same. And I predict you will still be saying that the findings were white washed by the global AGW conspiracy, which includes not only scientists from multiple disciplines, but most all politicians save Sen. Inhofe, and all of the media as well.
We'll see.
Bob, having driven Europe's roads, the other reason we don't see SUV's over there is the width of same. I'm already nervous in a small car - it would be downright terrifying if I were in one 84 inches wide. Owning Audi's exactly like the ones they have in Germany, I can tell you the mileage isn't what I would stellar, although the performance certainly is. :)
As to wind and other renewables. Personally I want to see them stand on their own two feet without the added dimension of AGW. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me to have wind OR solar in Ontario, because it is neither sunny nor windy there. It does make sense however for the Europeans to band together as they have to implement a massive solar project in the Sahara desert, which is both sunny and windy. The only downside to that idea is the political instability in the area, but I remember when Europe was politically unstable too. How would the populace of Ontario feel if 16,000 people received a check for $437,500 each? That's how the $7B divides out. Personally the multiplier effect of that many checks to that many people would dramatically outweigh the singular effect of that money going to the Japanese. Now if it were "America", we'd just be giving the Japanese their own money back...
For your enlightenment, the American states are composite parts of the country called America, not “the U.S.”, and the inhabitants are called Americans, not “usans”. Please show a little more respect for your partners and customers. If you wish to be called an American, you should change your country’s name to something with “america” in it.
John,
Thanks for another thoroughly thought-provoking article. Two in one month is remarkable. I, being a skeptic, or rather an agnostic on the matter of global warming, will not jump into the quagmire of whether or not global warming is or is not a fact, nor whether it is anthropogenic or not, much less try to offer a quick solution. Why? That is simply not my field of study. With so many smart fellers in disagreement, I will bow out. Skeptics are one thing, but when liars lie they should be called out. Stay in their face.
Everyone,
The issue of clean air trumps all. If the issue is clean air AND enough electricity to support a healthy economy, nuclear as the primary baseload, or foundation, is the key. That was my position even back when the big bugaboo was global COOLING, not warming.
Bob,
A theme you frequently expound upon is that nuclear is too expensive on the construction side. What you overlook is the difference between cost and value.
Whereas nuclear can provide more than 8000 kwh per year per kw of capacity, and nothing else except coal comes even close, that cannot be dismissed by current pessimistic estimates of high going-in costs. Are any of the other so-called alternatives to nuclear built to last for upwards of 60 years per kw of capacity? And can they rightfully be called baseloaders? As for the initial cost of nuclear construction, it could very well be that construction costs will be minimized if costs can be controlled in a non-crisis, apolitical manner and if their construction is allowed without borrowing money at exorbitant interest rates such as what happened in the 1970’s and ’80’s.
When I think about nuclear, I think about the future. When our democratically elected ignoramuses have learned some bottom line energy economics - as well as Econ 101 - and understand what yours (humble) truly already understands: more nuclear and the right renewables are the way to go. What are the right renewables? I think/hope that I could figure that out, or more realistically make a contribution to the discussion, but I would require a lot of money, and the other people in the discussion would have to get used to listening to some very un-academic language.
About the subject of the above essay. I am cleaning out the workroom in my house, and just about all environmental materials are being dumped - to include my own. I am however keeping the materials on emissions trading, so that I can make a fool of somebody, anybody, who comes to this university for the purpose of claiming that it makes sense. I would also like to say though that when somebody asks me about warming, I either don't answer or say that I agree with Al Gore and Co. Of course the reason is that if those gorgeous creatures in the environmental departments get their way, money might - might - go to the subsidizing of renewables instead of a war in the Yemen, or beefing up the crazy commitment in Afghanistan. I understand the objections to this way of thinking, but when you deal with charlatans or fools, you have to deal with them on their level. Otherwise, for example, you wouldn't be able to teach economics in 99 percent of the universities in this old world of ours.
It’s kind of like shopping for new production capacity in a manufacturing industry. Take steel making for example. Everyone in the steel industry knows that larger blast furnaces benefit from economy of scale in iron-making, presenting huge value to a company if they expect production demand to grow over time. But the largest blast furnaces take much higher going-in costs to build, effectively requiring a company to “bet” that down the road the extra demand for their large capacity will be there. Nuclear plants can be thought of as an analogy. The high going-in costs of nuclear plants are too great a gamble to bet huge sums of construction costs on in the minds of planners.
If you want my opinion, the nuclear industry should put much more effort into refining smaller-scale plants at lower going-in costs, and market these in direct competition with other generation sources if they want to go begging for work in future. OR come up with ways to lower the going-in costs of the largest plants.
Jeff, granted there are lots of narrow roads in Europe but their highways are mostly all modern wide ones like we have here. Their older narrow urban and rural roads were never upgraded to wide ones largely because there was no demand for it e.g. large vehicles are not on most of their population's radar screens because they cannot afford the fuel.
Furthermore, Ontario is not that naive about solar and wind. Of course everyone in Ontario knows we don't have as much sun as the Sahara desert and other more southern places, but for a good half of the year we do. We do have lots of wide open spaces in Ontario's rural areas, and lots of wide open Great Lakes where there's lots of wind on a regular basis however.
You see Jeff the fact solar and wind will be inherently part-time capacity doesn't seem to bother our grid planners. Smart Grid, Time-Of-Use billing for consumers, and the massive government promotion for more energy conservation and efficiency upgrades with consumers are expected to deal with a generator fleet that is characterized by much more part-time or fluctuating (power) capacity down the road. I'm sad to disappoint you but the same story and thinking is playing out now in several US states and in Washington as well.
I appreciate your concerns about nuclear plant costs, but when utilities get cost estimates, they are very high, plus they have the expectation that cost overruns are not unexpected. A nuclear power plant on a per kW basis is MUCH higher than a coal plant, even with the latest scrubber technology added.
Fermi II (built in 1988) generates 1100 MW and was supposed to cost $229 million to build (1969 estimate). It ended up costing $4.858 Billion by the time it was completed in 1988.
The proposed Fermi III would generate 1500 MW and has a cost estimate of up to 10 Billion dollars. Whatever these costs entail, it's not a siting issue as it would be right next to Fermi II.
You can say these estimates are too high. But that's what the utilities have to work with.
Bob,
For this $7 Billion Canadian, you get 2.5 GW? Is that nameplate or actual realized capacity? If it's nameplate, give it a (generous) capacity of 20%, so you'd be getting 500 MW for 7 Billion dollars Canadian.
On a hot sunny windy summer afternoon, I promise you it will have 2.5 GW capacity. I assume your point is 500 MW is an average available capacity over time, and like I told Jeff, the grid planners are well aware of this. They also know that hot sunny afternoons happen quite frequently in summer months when total grid demand is typically highest all year. And the wind generation portion will be near peak nameplate capacity even more often all year long - at times.
You see Jim having nameplate capacity available 24/7 is no longer a high priority for the entire province’s generation fleet, only part of the fleet needs to handle at least the minimum demand at night. For those days when sun and wind are not available at all, no kidding they will need back-up conventional generation available periodically, and/or they expect to curtail demand substantially by other means I've talked about already.
That just seems kind of pricey. Even Jeff the wind guy would agree. What percent of it is wind and what is solar?
I don't know the solar - wind split details, I suspect they have not been published but I could be wrong. There is likely some flexibility in the deal for the actual split since the built-out will happen over many years. I mean there could be breakthroughs for example that emerge in solar in say 3 years from now, or in storage technologies, which could favor one source over the other in time.
Yes it kind of pricey, and in fact the public is being told in Ontario to expect significantly higher energy rates down to the road as a result. If this happens, as I predicted some time ago on this website, it may turn out to be a good thing for consumers because it will force more of us to start paying attention to and manage energy uses in spite of the widespread luxury we have enjoyed in past with cheap plentiful electricity on demand 24/7.
Sure many consumers won't like to have to add energy bill management to their personal lives, and I’m sure many will call this an infringement on personal freedoms created by our grid planners, especially in the US. But think about it for a minute. In 5 years when perhaps a significant number of consumers have plug-in electric cars, there will be lots of consumers who in past paid more attention to their gasoline expenses will suddenly be paying far more attention to electricity bills anyway
The Ontario Samsung deal "economic adder" of a 4 percent bonus over the already lucrative feed-in tariffs for renewable sources reportedly is estimated will cost all Ontario rate payers an extra $437million over 25 years. This amount shared by everyone will apparently add $1.60 per year to the average residential electricity bill in today's dollars.
Since the 7 billion dollars is coming from the lucrative feed-in tariffs to start with, given $437 million translates to $1.60 per year, the $7 billion amounts to about $25 more per year if scaled linearly, or $2 per month. Not really that much to most consumers. But in my view the whole shift in energy generation unfolding combined with plug-in vehicles will be like death-by-a-thousand-small-cuts from a small knife, where lots of other small increases will boost our electricity bills much higher in time, much faster than the rate of inflation.
You can download the study here
BTW, during the 2003 blackout, the feed between the two countries went nuts. Within one second the flow switched by 5-6 GW to Ontario from Michigan and then back again from Ontario to Michigan. Lake Erie really got in the way I guess.
I agree with your analogy of running big furnaces less than 24/7, I learned much about them coming myself from a steel industry city in Ontario (Hamilton). My point was that if it is known they can only run on the day shift, and that demand for capacity will rise over time nevertheless, steel company people won't build the biggest furnaces, they are more inclined to build smaller ones, and build more of them gradually in stages instead of building the fewer much larger furnaces, the latter forcing you to build in the large capacity all at once. Among other things it's certainly easier to bankroll the capital costs gradually over time than to ask the bank for a big lump sum all at once for a large furnace (or a large nuclear plant).
Don’t get me wrong here, I don't look forward to the rising electricity rates down the road to pay for all these wind mills and solar farms that are coming to Ontario. The moral of my comments is economies of scale when it comes to capital equipment expenditures is rarely the only deciding factor on what to buy, in any industry for that matter.
Jim,
The 2003 blackout is a great example of how the grid can behave with gigantic swings of energy flows when large central generators start to go down. Picture instead how the grid will respond many years from now when it likely has a much larger number of distributed smaller generators. I'll bet it would behave much differently to major faults like what precipitated the 2003 blackout.
Your numbers on PHEVs may be accurate, I am not an expert on the state-of-the-art for them, but that 6.4 lbs of weight of gasoline will be viewed as an iinsignficant advantage over the batteries once the price for that gasoline becomes unbearable as oil prices escalate over time.
As for the massive weight of batteries and the rare earth metals or other materials that go into making them today, many people in industry are much more optimistic about the future development of batteries. I hate to disappoint you again but there is a ton of money being poured into battery technology R&D right now. Government support and the companies working on them know that a breakthrough unlocks mass market opportunities and a huge potential to capitalize on it. There are no guarantees of course in breakthroughs happening, but odds are in favor of one given all the engineering talent working on it.
So Jeff, I suggest do as I would do - wait about 5 years or so and by then the technology for PHEVs will either have made a breakthrough and be appearing in mass numbers on the roads, or they will have floundered with languishing sales and probably be fizzling out. In the latter case we can say we did the smart thing, and plan instead on ditching our SUVs or trucks for bicycles or something that doesn't break the bank to operate.
They weren't "my' numbers but someone who specializes in investing and researching battery tech and makes money from same. Like another research specialist years ago who strongly recommended against biofuels for much the same reasoning. Now looking at the investment history of biofuels, we see they were a major destroyer of capital, on the order of 99.9%. You would have been better off to buy lottery tickets. Government investment is of course key and I observed a large chunk of stimulus money went into battery research. Considering the "air" battery has been around for over 100 years, you'd think they would have figured out how to improve on that by now, but no luck. Unfortunately given the BTU equivalencies, we are losing ground thermodynamically every year we ignore the tremendous capacity of fossil fuel in favor of "the next new thing", that never seems to materialize. Ideally we would spend money on vastly improving fuel performance, but that just isn't "sexy" enough.
You can recycle the batteries, so the resource limitation is not a strong argument. I haven't been a huge fan of Lithium Ion batteries. Toyota built a great NiMH battery for the RAV-4 electrics they built. Many of them are still running today, and using the same EV-95 batteries.
It all boils down to how much per kW-hr does the pack cost, and how long do they last. The numbers seem to be getting better faster than many anticipated. I'd thought a $300/kW-hr pack was years away, but it seems to be pretty close at hand. That would be cheap enough to do some interesting things.
In 1859 the Frenchman Gaston Plante invented the lead-acid battery. Today almost every car, truck, tractor, boat or lawn mower worldwide carries a sulfuric acid/ lead battery. I am unaware of a single exception.
There are only so many elements in the Periodic Chart to work with and over the last 150 years progress has been slight.
Circa 1949 I recall a Chemical Engineering professor remark as an aside, that “nothing has proved to be more refractory to improvement than the lead-acid battery.” Sixty one years later it is remains a cogent observation.
We should honor Gaston Plante.
Normally, I'd agree with you. But 60 years ago we didn't have nanomaterials. Now we do. And active microsensing to preserve cell-life. All this stuff. I'm not saying it's a done deal, but it could happen.
To other readers, Jim is probably the best guru in the world on the state-of-the-art on these subjects.
And to anyone who thinks throwing money at R&D is a monumental waste, try telling that to Steve Jobs at Apple for example. Apple is a prime example of a company in my industry who ROUTINELY invests money in product R&D, and then later capitalizes on the results with the next new thing because there is often a huge market for the next new thing.
Don't underestimate what American engineering talent can do in R&D, they have proven time and time again they can achieve breakthroughs. Batteries are a tough one I admit, but if you don't try, read if you don't invest money in new developments, you're guaranteed to never succeed.
I remember about a dozen years ago when the garage tinkerers were working on EVs, the idea of regenerative braking was sort of a dream to them; technically possible, but very difficult to achieve. Of course, when the big players got involved (Toyota, Ford, GM) that technical issue was quickly solved. That, combined with an adequate U-CAP stack such that a full braking event can be mostly recovered, will prove a huge boon to any kind of stop/go urban driving. Note also that this drive is basically INDEPENDENT of vehicle size, so long as on can afford the U-CAP pack size to accommodate the larger mass. For high speed highway driving, the added mass is basically irrelevant - aerodynamic issues take over.
Separating the IC engine from the electric drive will also improve efficiencies without huge added costs over the long run. (It seems to work pretty well for diesel locomotives.) That being said, I think the GM Volt (serial hybrid) is not as good a play as the parallel hybrid found in the Prius/Escape. Using basically just a fancy planetary gear, Toyota/Ford can add the power of the batteries and the engine to move the vehicle. The Volt has to route everything through the battery pack. I think this was a mistake and is probably a vestige of GM's stupid quest for a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle (They were/are thinking about plopping in a fuel cell to replace the IC engine, so they didn't put the gearing in the design.)
Bob,
Apparently, what you are saying is finally coming out loosely as a “plan”. Repubs and Dems are closer than ever on affirming the need for more nuclear on the condition of smaller and more advanced designs. John Kerry (Dem) has introduced, or is about to introduce, legislation to support such nuclear reactors; Secretary Chu has voiced strong support (when he’s preaching to the choir) for same; the American Nuclear Society has come out for advanced modular; and last night President Obama said essentially the same thing.
Nevertheless, known economies of scale may yet dictate new and large light water reactors of known worth. I will be interested in seeing how the power utilities weigh in. It will be a serious setback for plans for large reactors if they are forbidden to pay-as-you-build. Looks for now like the elected PCU’s are up to their old tricks of delay-and-pay-dearly for borrowed money. The first wave of nukes in the 70s were greatly delayed as they re-designed and retro-fitted nearly everything. Cost controls were extremely poor. The nuclear industry has matured tremendously since those bad old days, so I see no good reason to be overly expensive again. I think the cost estimators simply don't want to be accused later of making it look too rosy way ahead of actual construction.
For the time being, I agree that smaller is better so that a sudden loss of one 1500-MW unit is not a grid catastrophe even if it results in greater long-term costs (as opposed to say three 500-MW units). Whether or not more, and which kind, will be built will depend upon the depth of the energy crisis which is yet to be discovered.
PHEVs and various rechargeable technologies will place a greater demand on baseloaders simply because most users will be day workers and the preferred time for recharging will be at night. I see a lot of momentum for switching to the electric grid for transportation vehicles and grid storage batteries, but not a matching momentum for baseloaders.
Until a year or so ago in Sweden, not only could nuclear research not be done, but it was almost like you were prevented from thinking about doing it. The danger was in running afoul of a 'thought police' of the type that they reputedly had in Japan just before WW2, only this police was informal and consisted of ignorant and half-educated environmentalists, journalists and academics.
Yes, plenty of evidence for bigger-is-better. After all, 4 million more MW-hrs in sales per year for a 1500 MW plant vs a 1000 MW plant is nothing to ignore. Our utilities have been aware of that for years and have made it clear that’s what they want. Right now, before they take another plunge they just want better assurance that once built, a plant will run long enough to be paid off and have a decent rate of return. Incidentally, the older large units that are now running are such great cash cows because in the first 30-40 years of their lifetimes they will have paid off the capital investment. After regular O&M for the renewed 20 years (and perhaps beyond) the revenue is mostly gravy.
The Finns are probably not in the same political mud hole that we are in and so are more apt to apply a reasonable course of action in a shorter timeframe. For now, smaller and perceived-to-be safer designs may be the only thing that will break our political log-jam and make nuclear more acceptable. Ultimately, however, I am certain that economy of scale will rule.
Creating computer games and gadgets, or computers that have more speed is not in the category of inventing the transistor or the lead/acid battery or toilet paper.
I like the remote door locks (etc. etc.) On my car but they did not involve any new inventions.
What new sources of energy has all our R&D given us. I’d say one, maybe two if we count solar voltaic. R&D has given us a zillion improvements and new applications and increased efficiencies.
If you were to lay out the parts of a hundred year old car engine next to those of a current car you would see a remarkable similarity among those parts that actually make it go. Getting rid (good riddance) of the carburetor likely the biggest difference. Same similarities with the cooling system and differential and universal joints.
If someone then had said cars a hundred years from now will go 10 times as fast and be 10 times more efficient and convert into airplanes they would have proven false prophets. But we did have some quite good EV’s a hundred years ago. The range per charge was about the same as claimed today, circa 40 -50 miles. Without any electronics. They were too expensive vs gasoline cars. I don’t call applying the idea of diesel electric locomotives to rubber tired vehicles much of a leap, but it needed electronics..
Regenerative braking was brought up as a modern accomplishment. Regenerative braking was used routinely on street cars in hilly cities over(?) a hundred years ago. Again, all without electronics. I remember it well in Elgin, Illinois.
I don't wish to be patronizing, but just because something hasn't been solved in 60 years doesn't mean it can't be solved. Someone finally proved Fermat's last theorem after 300 years or so.
NiMH batteries represented "good enough" technology for EVs and PHEVs. The RAV4 EV-95 batteries (12 volts, 95-amp-hours) were supposed to be good for only 100,000 miles, but owners found them durable enough to last for 250,000 miles or more! This surprised many people. Unfortunately, NiMH technology got caught up in patent issues when Texaco bought the rights to the technology, and no NiMH cell greater than 12-amp-hours was allowed to manufactured. It's unclear how much these things really cost, but they worked well enough and they were durable.
One problem with Lithium ion is that the cells had about a 5 year life after manufacture, whether they are used or not. I'm not certain they've licked this problem completely yet or not.
The point is that in my mind, the EV problem has already been "solved" technically (if not economically) with NiMH cells. We are trying to solve it again, or solve it better, with Lithium cells. Such is the way of the world, I guess.
About a hundred years ago there was genuine competition between gasoline, battery and steam cars. All were being manufactured and were viable. Battery cars had the disadvantage of high cost. Steam cars were also expensive and many people were scared of explosions and there was a wait to come up to pressure before setting out. The gasoline cars had to be cranked, not something many women wanted to do. When the self-starter powered by a lead/acid battery was introduced the gasoline engine eventually emerged the winner after WWI. It could well have gone another way.
I detect a mind-set that science and technology can somehow solve all problems. In my last post I pointed out that we have had only one new (nuclear) energy (or two, solar voltaic) source since fossil fuels. I cannot prove there is no new source to be discovered any more than I can say there are not 20 miniature zebras grazing on my front lawn – applying the Scientific Method ad absurdum.
Even with all our modern science methods I’d bet that we don’t discover the unicorn. I know, that’s science heresy.
Jim, don’t make me into some kind of a Luddite. I said that after 150 years (not the 60 you twice mentioned) little progress has been made vs the Pb/acid battery. Vast amounts of money and talent have been applied. I did suggest that a significantly better economic battery has become a diminishingly likely prospect.
About a hundred years ago there was genuine competion between gasoline, battery and steam cars. All were being manufactured and were viable. Battery cars had the disadvantage of high cost. Steam cars were also expensive and many people were scared of explosions and there was a wait to come up to pressure before setting out. The gasoline cars had to be cranked, not something many women wanted to do. When the self-starter powered by a lead/acid battery was introduced the gasoline engine eventually emerged the winner after WWI. It could well have gone another way.
I detect a mind-set that science and technology can somehow solve all problems. In my last post I pointed out that we have had only one new (nuclear) energy (or two, solar voltaic) source since fossil fuels. I cannot prove there is no new source to be discovered any more than I can say there are not 20 miniature zebras grazing on my front lawn – applying the Scientific Method ad absurdum.
Even with all our modern science methods I’d bet that we don’t discover the unicorn. I know, that’s science heresy.
Science (methods) only shed light on understanding the nature of things. Alternatively developing new methods of solving man's problems, even old problems, in a practical and economical way is called creativity and innovation - the marks of a good design engineer or "applied scientist". Be careful you don't confuse the two.
In my world of electronics engineering, technology and new methods of solving problems has drastically changed the world in the last 30 years or so more than anything else in human history. Technology from my industry is pervasive in almost every facet of life on earth now, from the microwave oven in your kitchen to the complex controllers running nuclear power plants to name just two.
The unicorn is not likely to be discovered granted, but if the future of the world's energy industry depended on finding a unicorn, most people in academia who study science, and most people in industry who apply science in innovation, would not give up as easily as you would trying to find one. Indeed with today's genetic engineering, some would even dream of applying such to perhaps breed a unicorn by combining zebras with horned animals. It's not unthinkable today even though it may have been just 20 years ago.
The moral of my story Don is that whether you recognize it or not, creativity and innovation take money and effort by creative innovators who have positive attitudes with new ideas to explore. We would all still be living in caves if all men had negative attitudes like yours.
I have thought about the accusation that I am a ‘negative thinker” therefore, ipso facto to be dismissed. In 1975 at a meeting of executives from oil companies, refinery construction companies, companies that licensed oil refining and petrochemical processes I had a seat at the table. I was likely the lowest ranked person at the table.
Uncharacteristically at some point I surprisingly took the floor and said, “Why would anyone want to build a new (i.e. grass roots) refinery (in the US.)? Deadly silence ensued.
Fact: Bingo! The last new refinery built in the US was in 1975 although many existing refineries have since then increased their capacities. Nearly all small refineries have shut down since 1976. And I paid for my prescience; I was fired a few months later.
Mine was without a doubt a case of “negative thinking.” Guilty as charged.
There followed a period hyped by those wonderful people who knew how to save the world with hydrogen fuel but knew nothing about thermodynamics. I wrote letters, among which were to Mercedes Benz, BMW, magazines and newspapers that pointed out this was fatuous. All this resulted in being stigmatized as a “negative thinker.” Thanks.
Len has faulted me on comparing 100 year old engines to engines today. As if I said there have not been improvements! Len, how assine, set up some more straw men to be knocked over.
Don, you are a kindred spirit along with Jeff. The hydrogen economy is dead before it begins, but as with so many things, it might take politicians a decade or more to wise up.
And now we are up to 100 posts here! Well!
First Law: There is no such thing as a free lunch.
Second Law: The better lunch is, the more it costs.
I am not sure there is a legislator alive who does not believe that the laws of nature and the laws of economics can be repealed or amended as required to fit their needs, the experience of centuries notwithstanding.
Ed
Another version of the Laws of Thermodynamics: 1) You can’t win 2) You can’t break even and 3) You can’t get out of the game.
He agreed about all the problems with hydrogen, but stated that they were still interested in pursuing it because it was the only fuel that could be made from renewable energy (meaning solar or wind electricity electrolyzing water).
After the talk I gave him my paper and explained that this same hydrogen could be reacted with carbon dioxide to produce methane or any number of other fuels that would be much easier to manage (and would have an existing infrastructure).
He didn't even seem to know this was a possibility!
A few years earlier, my written question was picked at a large energy event that posed to GM's Larry Burns "Why is GM wasting their shareholders' money on hydrogen?" (He basically said cuz his boss told him to.) Well, Burns, the boss (Rick Wagoner) and even the shareholders are all gone now.
I think it's a bit more complicated as to why so many automakers' have looked to hydrogen. I don't think they are ignorant, but may be pulled by other forces in so many different directions that hydrogen is the best overall notion (in their minds).
I think the technology and economics of PHEVs are much stronger than for hydrogen. Toyota is making money on their Priuses, and Ford is breaking even on their hybrid escapes. Not bad for something so new.
In the end, you have to believe in one of 3 things. Either everything is dandy and no chance is needed (that is, no peak oil). Or technology can help our situation if applied wisely. Or we are doomed and nothing will help us in any event.
Interesting how John's articles result in a "pissing contest" as he claims we get into.
I agree with Jim that PHEVs have a much brighter potential for successful commercialization that hydrogen. But those involved in hydrogen's research are not going to give up that easily, witness the hydrogen fuel cell public buses that about to be put into use on display for the Vancouver winter Olympics in the next couple of weeks. Hellishly expensive, I understand they had to ship hydrogen fuel in all the way from a company in Quebec to keep them running if my memory serves correctly.
In general, due to the equipment and handling needs of hydrogen, it is a fuel that is much more controllable in terms of how sells and markets it. GM also thought that if they could perfect a good fuel cell, then they'd have the rights to the post-IC engine technology of the 21st century.
All these carrots were enough for powerful folks to ignore the stick that was thermodynamic reality.
"Another version of the Laws of Thermodynamics: 1) You can’t win 2) You can’t break even and 3) You can’t get out of the game."
I hadn't heard that one before. Thanks.
Ed
Environmentalists are concerned because methane is a potent greenhouse gas and some escapes into the atmosphere. A big concern is if large deposits of methane hydrates melt, that could accelerate global warming further. Methane is about 20 times more potent as a greenhouse gas compared with carbon dioxide. I don't think there's much concern about the methane (or NG) in our energy systems escaping. We control it pretty well. It's mostly the stuff that is poorly controlled, like landfills that haven't been tapped for NG or cows which can emit a lot of methane, apparently. Termites too, I guess.
I spoke with some GM people attached to the Autonomy/Hy-wire project some years ago. They didn't seem to understand me very well. (Why would anyone react perfectly good hydrogen with CO2 to make methane?) The closest thing they seem to be familiar with was the reverse water shift reaction: CO + H2O -> CO2 + H2
Basically, hydrogen is so reactive it will even "burn" in the presence of CO2. This is how methanogens (the critters that live in our oxygen-free guts) process hydrogen to get their own energy. CO2 + 4H2 -> CH4 + 2H2O. Methanogens do this will an enzyme known as cofactor F430 which looks much like a Chlorophyll but with a nickel atom in the center instead of magnesium.
Paul Sabatier discovered that a nickel catalyst (just like the methanogens) can motivate the exothermic Sabatier reaction: CO2 + 4H2 -> CH4 + 2H2O + heat.
I don't know why the GM people (and few others) seem to know about this. I think most people think CO2 is an unreactive chemical end product, but that's not really the case, at least in the presence of hydrogen.
Please note that there are high energy costs going from water and carbon dioxide to methane. But the point I tried to make to GM is that IF you decided to expend the electrical energy to electrolyze water to make hydrogen THEN you might as well go the next step and react the hydrogen to make methane as the storability of the fuel is much improved compared with the additional energy lost (about 20%). (And if you are making hydrogen by decomposing methane, then that's probably silly; you should just use the methane.) The sad thing is that for every hundred people that know about the electrolysis of water, probably only 1 or 2 knows about the Sabatier reaction.
“NASA is currently investigating the use of the Sabatier reaction to recover water from exhaled carbon dioxide, for use on the International Space Station and future missions. The other resulting chemical, methane, would most likely be dumped overboard. As half of the input hydrogen becomes wasted as methane, additional hydrogen would need to be supplied from Earth to make up the difference. However, this creates a nearly closed cycle between water, oxygen, and carbon dioxide which only requires a relatively modest amount of imported hydrogen to maintain”
The reaction requires high temperature and high pressure but the article does not supply any numbers - nor are any values given for the heats of reaction.
Now Government Motors [GM] has the gold to do this (currently), but they suffer from NIH syndrome, so wouldn't consider it for a billion years or so, or long after those fossils are gone, literally. The odds of some upstart becoming the next Ford or GM are non existent, because the system is designed to support them and their unions. Tesla is the current exception of course, with their $465M from the gov't, all for poor people to buy $100-200K electric cars with a 200 mile range (much less if you actually want to go fast and not just look fast). I guarantee if Tesla gets any traction (pun intended) they'll just get gobbled up by one of the bigs, probably GM.
The other thing of course is a hydrogen fuel cell coupled with an electric motor... The creme de la unicorn.
Another space use of the Sabatier reactor is for a trip to Mars. Instead of bringing the return fuel, you just bring some hydrogen and a nuclear reactor. You react the hydrogen with in situ carbon dioxide (in the Martian atmosphere) and produce methane/oxygen fuel. This is a huge weight (8x or more) reduction which makes sample-return or human missions of Mars feasible and much less costly. If you can find water on Mars, then you'd just need the reactor; and some time. But orbital mechanics indicate you need to spend two years on Mars anyway before returning.
Hydrides for storing hydrogen are either too heavy (metals) or use too much energy in their creation (Boron). The other problem with hydrides is that you have to haul them back to some charging station for regeneration. Read the Bossel/Eliasson paper from some years back. It was an effective dispatch of hydrogen notions.
My 'hydride' of choice is carbon dioxide, because you just dump it out as it's used. Perhaps I should call them 'carbon nanospheres' to attract the appropriate funding....
I don't think Tesla will make it because they got started before PHEVs made it into common parlance. Better to haul around a tiny IC engine than an extra $10K in batteries. (The engine also solves the immediate recharge problem with the existing energy infrastructure.) All-electric vehicles are sought by those seeking 'elegance' and 'purity of concept'. Fine, but few people will 'pay for that'.
If I had had my wits about me when I made my last post I would have realized the immediate loss of energy of about 20% by comparing the fuel value on both sides of the equation. Duh. One mol of methane on the right vs four mols of hydrogen on the left. i.e. 16 # methane @ 24,000 BTUs/# vs 8#hydrogen @ 61,000 BTUs/ # = 0.787. If the reaction goes only as written.
Since there's 5 molecules on the left but only 3 on the right (two of which can liquefy easily) the reaction is further forwarded under pressure, so higher is better. 500 psi is probably good enough. Depending on the catalyst (Ruthenium is better, Nickel is cheaper) you can get away with 400-700 F.
It's not a difficult reaction to sustain. Sabatier reactors have run continuously for 8,000-10,000 hours in outer space.
I might be off the tracks. I don’t think I have used my bed-sheet sized Mollier Chart for about 60 years. Anyone, don’t be shy about telling me if I am talking nonsense.
Seems to me the last time I did those numbers there can be certain rare hill-climbing / towing / full-load test conditions which make the IC engine far too large to actually allow it to operate full-time anywhere near its peak efficiency at light-load level-ground cruising conditions. It would need to constantly stop-start at intervals defined by the fast storage capacity available. Perhaps IF a high-capacity capacitor system became available ... (what's the news on EStor lately? I know, half the world think's they're a scam. I still hope, though with little basis I fear.)
Thanks for your thoughts.
I'm not sure how great a fuel methane (synthetic or otherwise) might be, but it seems very likely to be a better fuel than hydrogen. I think in a more practical sense, some kind of liquid fuel would be desirable. Methanol is not bad, but its toxicity is problematic. Anything else gets to larger molecules and thus greater cost in synthesis. (There is no free lunch with liquid fuels, especially synthetic ones.)
I think an optimal vehicle would be a PHEV with a parallel drive (like the Prius/Ford Escape) that could be powered with methane and some liquid fuel (methanol/ethanol/gasoline). So I guess it would be tri-fuel. Use the battery for 20-40 miles, methane for 100-150 miles, liquid for another 200 or so. I realize this could be overkill.
Ideally, you want the u-cap bank to be able to accommodate a full breaking event. For a 2000 kg vehicle going 30-35 meters/sec (65-85 mph), that would be about 1 MJ or 277 Wh, or 275,000 Farads (at 2.7V). That's a lot of storage and a lot of cost there. If you consider slower breaking events to be the norm (such that the battery can store some of the energy) then you could get away with a much smaller bank.
It's interesting that if the pack can be large enough to substantially capture these braking events, then vehicle SIZE becomes much less important. Up to 40 mph, energy requirements are driven by the kinetic energy alone. Over 40 mph, the aerodynamics start to become more significant.
I appreciate the hill climbing problem. Maybe you could drop a gear and go a bit slower. Again, I think this represents a big new area of vehicle optimization that automakers are just beginning to tackle.
I'm afraid EESTOR probably is a scam. They've missed yet another deadline (Dec. 2009). It would be great if they succeeded, however. On the other hand, with some careful engineering, and a bit more advancement with conventional u-caps and some electronics (which are still a bit too expensive) I think we can get there with what we have today.
The wheels are slowly falling off this bus, but they ARE falling off.